NFL picks, 2021 AFC, NFC Championship best bets from a legendary expert: This 3-way parlay could pay 6-1 Hammerin' Hank Goldberg is 50-32 on his NFL best bets and just locked in his top NFL picks. Parlay Calculator. Sports Betting News. Jeff Siegel's Best Bets for Friday (2-12). And today returns to the second-level allowance ranks seeking a. From moneyline (overall winner) bets, to over/under, point spreads and parlay wagers, the OddsChecker team covers them all and brings you the best free picks in the world. At the top of this website under the “All Sports” tab, you will see all of the sports we offer odds comparison for.

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This page is divided into 3 simple sections.

The first section lists all of our premium member best bets for the day. This section lists all the games for all sports, including NBA. If you don't have a membership at Doc's Sports you can test out our premium best bets risk free with a complimentary free $60 account here.

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The second section lists one or two of our complimentary NBA matchup reports. We write these daily for every single NBA game. These articles are more for the do-it-yourself types that want to really dig in and also have the time do the extensive research required each day.

The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in NBA.

NBA Best Bets Tonight [Updated daily]

TODAY'S TOP PLAYS

DOC'S SPORTS NBA is on a 5-1 run for 7-Unit NBA picks and we are heating up with $2,370 profit the last 10 days we have released picks. We have a 7-Unit pick going Thursday after hitting an easy 7-Unit winner last Thursday before the All-Star Break. We picked up $13,000 for NBA predictions last season, No. 1 site wide, and we are making our move now in the 2021 season. Get a one-day package for Doc's Sports NBA on Thursday via the BUY NOW button below for only $30.

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Complimentary NBA games today [Updated daily]

New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, 3/11/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/10/2021

The New York Knicks are scheduled to go head to head with the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Thursday, March 11, 2021. New York opens this contest as 10.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 224.5. This games report has current odds, betting trends, and free picks against the spread. Read More >>

Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls Prediction, 3/11/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds
by Tony Sink - 3/10/2021

The Philadelphia 76ers are on the docket to meet the Chicago Bulls at United Center on Thursday, March 11, 2021. Philadelphia opens this matchup as 2.5-point dogs. The total is set at 227. This Matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free basketball pick for tonight. Read More >>

What Makes a Best Bet in NBA?

Best Mlb Parlay Bets Today

Here you will find a list of tips from our NBA experts that will help you understand what makes up a NBA best bet and what you should be looking for in order to spot one on your own.

DOC'S SPORTS – At Doc's Sports we consider the NBA Playoffs our specialty, and in the NBA Finals in particular we have had some incredible results lately. In the 2016 and 2017 NBA Finals we have earned nearly $5500 in profit combined for $100 bettors with a 9-2 result for 7-Unit plays during this span. For any playoff series we envision how we think the entire series will play out from game to game and then when the oddsmakers' lines differ from our vision then we attack with a large play. The bookies set their lines with the general betting public in mind and we find there are often weak lines in the NBA Finals since more dumb money is in the mix compared to a regular-season game. Sometimes a playoff series deviates from what we expect and at that point it is time to look again at the series as a whole and recalibrate your prediction for the series. It's a lot of work, but the results speak for themselves.

ROBERT FERRINGO – I always say: gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics. And if you look close enough and follow the numbers close enough the best bet situations will always present themselves. There are always motivational and situational factors to consider, particularly involving scheduling. But what takes a play from good to great is when you catch a team just begging for a statistical regression because of either exceptionally poor or exceptional outstanding shooting. Align that regression with other factors and voila, you have a big bet. An example was one of our first 7-Unit NBA Plays last year on Boston on Nov. 11. They had lost three straight games prior to taking on the Knicks. And despite being a Top 12 defensive team they had allowed their three previous opponents to shoot around 50 percent from the field and around 48 percent from 3-point range. In the meantime Boston, which was one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, was coming off a game in which they were held to just 93 points. Facing a rival, at home, looking to snap a losing streak, and due for both good offensive and defensive showings, the Celtics destroyed the Knicks 115-87 against a 5.5-point spread. That's how it's done.

INDIAN COWBOY – We have had some great success in the NBA, posting four straight winning years. One of the main things I look for are teams that recently faced each other and the line the second time they face each other. For example, last year the Warriors were -17 favorites over the Lakers and Golden State sent a clear message with a 149-106 blowout. Then two days later the Lakers and Warriors hooked up again, this time in Los Angeles, and we took the 'under'. Why? We took it because we knew that former Warriors Coach Luke Walton would undoubtedly make the necessary adjustments, appeal to the pride of his players, and make them play harder on the defensive end after giving up nearly 150 points in their previous game. See, most people think just because a game ended a certain way, it is going to be exactly that way or similar the next time around and that is not the case. Though we are big on revenge, sometimes there is an indirect revenge. In this case, the indirect revenge was the underdog play better, but the way they play better is to get better on what they were grotesquely bad at last time which was defense. The final score on November 25th was 109-85 and the Warriors won - and the game went well 'Under' the 230 which we took for a nice 3-Unit winner. Hence, when you are watching the NBA this year, look for teams that play each other again within a short span of time as it has the elements of the opposite pace it had in the first contest.

RAPHAEL ESPARZA – Betting the NBA in recent years has been weird because of the big swing in conference dominance. The public will always bet the top 3-5 teams but getting value on the not so entertaining teams like the Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, etc. is were you can get some value. With rules changing this year some of my stats and trends are out the window. But, again, handicapping NBA non-elite teams this year could be what makes another profitable year and even bigger for my best bets. Also look for tons of NBA teams playing at a higher pace because of how their rosters are setup and we could see tons of points scored this year in the NBA. I am a guy that loves betting totals so this could be a huge NBA season.

STRIKE POINT SPORTS – In the NBA bettors are constantly looking for an edge. It isn't the easiest sport due to players resting and the dreaded back-to-backs, or even worse, back-to-back-to-backs. Players are asked to play a lot of minutes each night and due to this teams decide to rest players and don't make it public until after gamblers have already done their research on the lines. Fear not, my friends, as there are some opportunities to take advantage of during the dog days of the NBA schedule. One such opportunity is when a teams best player doesn't play. This DNP could be due to an injury or because of rest. Many times oddsmakers will adjust a line in order to sway the public in this situation. It is important to not always just fade the team that isn't with their best player. In this spot the 'short-handed' team has value as players that aren't often given a shot to make a statement do so. A teams best player controls the basketball and a lot of times they take possessions away from other capable players. An NBA player gets time because he is good enough to make a difference. We used to love taking the Lakers when Kobe didn't play. Now, don't get us wrong, Kobe is an all-time great. But when he didn't play his teammates did their best to shine. They didn't always win, but they were always scrappy and would have plenty of value.

ALLEN EASTMAN – I think that one of the most important tips I can give to NBA bettors is to always be aware of the trends. I am a big trend player. And not just the trends that go back for one or two years. I like trends that go back five, 10 or even 12 years. There are some teams that don't play well in certain cities. Places like Utah and Portland can be horrible for opposing teams and some guys just never play well there. The more history you have the better the trend and then the stronger the play. .

JASON SHARPE – For me an NBA best bet usually involves finding a team that's going through some recent lineup changes due to injuries, trades or any other reason. For instance, if a player that is a starter gets hurt for a team and he's more of an offensive type player and he is replaced by more of a 'defensive-first' type player than I will tend to look towards betting an 'under' on this team, especially if a few other things come into play. And if more than one new player enters into the rotation that usually means I'm looking to strongly back something. The bottom line is the NBA betting market, like most professional sports leagues, is controlled by what I call 'the computer algorithm handicappers'. These guys will usually key in all the information on EACH team into their computers so each team has a game pace rating, a final score and offensive/defensive rating per possession to name a few stats that they all look at. My thinking is that these past stats for each team were accomplished when certain player(s) were on the floor and now if that team has a few different changes to who's representing them than we should expect some much different type results. The best time of the season to take advantage of these 'best bets' is usually at the beginning of the season involving a team that is using a few new players from the previous season and then again around the NBA trade deadline. Teams will quickly change the way they look and play when they have a different cast of characters on the floor. It's during this time of the season that you will see a lot of change and change is what we are looking for to get us one step ahead of the computer guys.

ALAN HARRIS – My main advice when looking for a top NBA play is do not overreact to injuries. Other than a quarterback in the NFL, a star player in the NBA has the biggest impact on a point spread. In the NBA, if LeBron James or Kevin Durant is announced out, both sharps and squares alike will run to the window with the thought that 'there's no way that team X can win without player Y.' Now, the Cavs or Warriors won't be as good long-term without those guys. But for that one game it's really not that big of a deal. The immediate thought is that the team is losing a bunch of points or rebounds but people don't take into account that yes, the backups are putting up less per game in those categories, but they are also doing it in less minutes. Also, starters will usually step up in a game where it's announced that one of the big guns will be out. We worked this strategy to perfection last season in a game between the Raptors and the Pacers. Kyle Lowry was hurt, listed as questionable, and there was a thought that he might come back that night. The overnight line opened up at the Raptors (-7) and it was announced early that Lowry wouldn't be playing. The line immediately dropped to -5 and that's where we jumped on it. What happened? DeMar DeRozan dropped 40, three other starters scored in double digits, and Delon Wright, who got some run due to the injury, chipped in with 11-2-6. Toronto wound up winning 111-100 and we wound up cashing a nice ticket on the Raptors.

VERNON CROY – When it comes to making a big play in the NBA, I look for motivation by a certain team and I also look for situational trends. How tired is the team I'm going against; did they just play three games in four nights or are they coming off a close loss against a division rival? Is the team I'm taking playing with extra rest and what is their motivation level for this game, as we have all seen teams take nights off in the NBA? I also look at the injury reports and study stats from when these teams have played in the past. Normally when there is a key player injured the books over adjust the lines leaving lots of value for taking the team with the injury, as they will pick up their game to make up for the loss of their star player. Is there a revenge factor or does a certain team play another team harder than others, or is this a letdown spot? These are just some of the several factors that go into making a big play in the NBA for me, and after 18-years I'm still adjusting my systems and analytics to be the best I can possibly be to give my clients an significant edge over the books.

TONY GEORGE – An NBA Handicapping tip I use involves scheduling and more specifically East and West Coast road swings. I like to fade teams, especially good teams towards the end of a long road trip when they are laying points. As an example, say the Cavs are playing their fifth road game in six or seven days on the West Coast. And after playing the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Jazz, now they have lowly Sacramento. When this scenario occurs, a good team will generally be laying six or more points to their weak opponent. I like to fade them and take the points. Road weary teams play little defense down the stretch and do what they have to do to just win a game many times.

DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a spread based on three power ratings I use. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects, that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up, and the situation is nicely favorable on the NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a big play!

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A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.

To give an example, say you’re interested this week in betting Jets -4, Patriots +3, Dolphins +2.5 and Colts -7. If your bankroll is limited to just $100, using straight wagers you’d make four separate bets of $25 to win $22.73. If you we’re feeling both lucky and in the mood to gamble, you might instead bet them all together as a four team parlay. Under the parlay option, the stakes would be $100 to win at least $1,000. To win, you’ll need to go 4-0; if one or more games push while all others win, the payout is reduced, and with any other outcome, the bet is a loss.

Best Nfl Parlay Bets Today

What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay.

Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on!

Are Parlays Sucker Bets?

There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.

The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:

2 teams 2.6 to 1
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 20-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 80-1
8 teams 150-1

Online the odds are similar, though some sites such as BetNow and MyBookie offer better odds starting with three teams and up. What’s important to note is that these are fixed odds based on a 50/50 wagering proposition. If a spread is listed at Home Team -7 / Road Team +7 this is 50/50 proposition. If, instead, the spread was Home Team -7 -105 / Road Team +7 -115, this is no longer a 50/50 proposition, and the payout will be calculated using a method bookmakers refer to as “true odds”. I’ll cover that later in this article, but first let’s take a moment to understand where fixed parlay odds are derived from.

Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:

Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91)
Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65)
Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97)
Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31)
Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41)
Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51)
Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70)
Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)

The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.

What Does a Parlay Pay?

As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds:

In general two team parlays pay +260, or $260 for every $100 bet. BetNow offers +264.5, and 5Dimes.eu offers +264, which is better than the +260 most betting sites offer.

3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts.

This is the area where betting sites generally hurt the sports bettor, paying only 10 to 1, which gives them a 31.25% advantage. This can be avoided when betting at BetNow where the payout is +1228.3, or at 5Dimes where it is +1228.

Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these.

How much does a 15 team parlay pay? A 15 team parlay will pay out over +16,000. I just tested this out and a $1 15 team NFL parlay at -110 odds will payout $16,306. Good luck hitting on that!

Best Parlay Bets Today Nba

True Odds Parlays

1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.

To calculate true odd parlays, each bet first needs to be converted into a multiplier. To do this, take what a winning ticket would return and divide it by the amount risked. For example, at -110 a $110 stake returns $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). Calculating the multiplier as return/risk here, we plug in 210/110, which means the multiplier is 1.91. If we did the same on -115, the multiplier is 215/115=1.87.

Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.

As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.

Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays

1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.

2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.

3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.

Parlays That Make the Most Sense:

Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline.

Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race.

Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses.

Circumventing Betting Limits – I’ll warn you upfront that betting sites do not take kindly to this, and it might get you banned. The basic idea here is, say you find a parlay with monster value in a small market with low betting limits. Let’s say a woman’s field hockey line opens at +150 when it should be +100. Here making ten unique two-team parlays, using the +150 bet with a random -110 each time might be advantageous, as on average you’ll get down 5 times the max bet. At -110 juice the expected ROI is less, but to get the maximum amount down on line of significant value, it might make sense. While personally I rarely use this strategy online, I do attempt to get away with it in Las Vegas from time to time. This takes a little bit of acting, such as starting to walk away from the cage and then saying wait, also give me… Know this: It is a trick of the trade advantage players use that is not for novice bettors.

This concludes our article on parlay betting. As a final tip: if you enjoy using parlays as a lottery ticket, www.Bovada.lv runs a $10,000 weekly parlay jackpot during football season, which is an added bonus on top of what a $5 stake pays on a 10 team parlay win. To learn more, see the promo section at www.Bovada.lv. If nothing else, this article gives you some great conversation material next time someone in the sports bar says, parlays are for suckers. Hopefully, it ends up being much more than that, adding extra winnings to your bankroll. Either way, we wish you the best of luck.

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How To Get Max Value When Betting